Following up on yesterday's post, here's a chart of a composite of leading indices for the U.S.:
Here's the post he refers to:
A less-brave, new LEI
The Conference Board updated this month the composition of its Leading Economic Indicators index. The most important change was the substitution of M2 for a proprietary index of credit conditions. Over the last year, especially, it had become embarrassingly evident that M2 was pushing the LEI up, and that this was not justified by economic conditions. M2 accounts for almost a quarter of the index....