Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Louise Yamada Sees a Big Bear

Louise was very sharp during her time at Smith Barney but had a stumble just before the start of the bull back in 2009* that made me shy away from posting. This piece is provocative enough that I could be wooed back.
From King World News blog:

Yamada - Gold Strong, Bear Market in Stocks to Last Until 2022
With gold trading near the $1,650 level and silver at $30, King World News interviewed legendary technical analyst, Louise Yamada, of LYA Advisors, to see where she sees gold, silver and stocks headed.  Louise surprised us when she discussed the bear market in stocks lasting until 2022.  Here is what she had to say about the 20 and 40 year cycles:  “These cycles do not bottom together again until 2022, technically leaving an outside possibility that this structural bear cycle may become extended and an ultimate beginning of the next structural bull may not manifest until 2022.  The overall market, as defined by by the Dow Jones Industrial average, might not get through the 2007 peaks for a significant period of time into the future.”

Louise Yamada continues:

“If you look back to almost 1900, the twenty year and forty year cycle actually bottomed together in 1942 and 1982.  By our definition, those are the initiating years of two structural bull market advances.  The first bull market was 1942 to 1966 and the second was from 1982 to 2000.  So, if one were to anticipate the next structural bull market is going to begin as those two did, with the confluence of the lows of the twenty and the forty year cycles, it takes you out to 2022...MORE
From a June 2009 post:
*Louise Yamada is a top rated technical analyst but even she isn't perfect. Here's a post at Investment Postcards from Cape Town dated March 2, 2009:

Louise Yamada: Don’t “venture into the waters”
That was a week before the start of the big rally. But as Prieur du Plessis says:

While one support level after the other of the major US stock market indices is being breached, I have just come across a CNBC interview with top-ranked Louise Yamada of Technical Research Advisors. Louise’s track record is just too good to be ignored, especially when she mentions possible targets of 4,000 and 400 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index respectively....
See also:
Markets: Back to the Future, 1938-1942