From Next Big Future:
China’s Provincial GDP Figures in 2011 and forecasts for 2012 through 201
... Getting over US$12,000 per person in 2010 dollars is the level where a country is believed to exceeded the level of a middle income trap.
Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are all over the US$12,000 per capita level as of the end of 2011. The other provinces should clear the US$12,000 per capita levels 1 to 2 years after they clear the US$10,000 per capita levels.
By 2015, China should have provinces with a combined population of about 500 million with per capita GDP over US$12,000. I am projecting all of China to have a per capita GDP of about $9000-10000 in 2010 US dollars in 2015