“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not functioning properly.” – Jeremy Grantham-"Climateer Line of the Day: Jeremy Grantham on Profit Margins Edition"
Cutting Into Muscle - The Record Corporate Margin Juggernaut Has Just Rolled Over
In this week's chartology from Goldman's David Kostin there is the usual plethora of useful data, but two slides deserve a very special mention because with 39% of the S&P already reporting Q4 data, the implication is quite dire.See also:
If Kostin is correct, then the corporate margin juggernaut, which recently hit an all time high in Q3 of 2011, and which has for all intents and purposes been the one offset to deteriorating economic conditions, recurring Fed stimuli to the economy aside, has officially peaked and is now rolling over.
This has huge implications for virtually everything, as it means that after 3 years of layoffs, corporate America has finally cut through all the fat and is now officially chopping into muscle with every additional layoff. It also means that going forward no matter how many workers are laid off, the corporate margin rate wil not increase.
Furthermore, if Bernanke or Draghi officially launch another inflationary easing episode which more than anything exports inflation to China, which in turn reexports it back to America in the form of rising COGS, margins will compress even more.
In other words, the US economy, which sadly has been "defined" as the Russell 2000 and/or the DJIA, is tipping over. And with companies posting a near record low positive earnings surprise ratio, we are once again amazed how yet another Goldman team may have well called the absolute peak in the market with its long Russell call from two days ago.
The two smoking guns:
(click to enlarge)
And another chart which confirms that the good times are now over:...MORE
Jeremy Grantham on Corporate Profits and Mean Reversion
One of the smartest guys in finance telling us what to watch for.