Thursday, December 1, 2011

Crestmont Market Valuation Update

We like Crestmont. Their work on inflation's impact on equity returns is some of the best.
Via Doug Short's dShort blog:

The May 2011 article P/E: Future On The Horizon by Advisor Perspectives contributor Ed Easterling provided an overview of Ed's method for determining where the market is headed. His analysis is quite compelling. Accordingly I have added the Crestmont data to my monthly market valuation updates.
The first chart is the Crestmont equivalent of the Cyclical P/E10 ratio chart I've been sharing on a monthly basis for the past few years....MORE
One of the charts in the piece is in a different format than I am used to, I don't know if Mr. Short has put the data into his own presentation style or if Crestmont has stopped using the "lazy Y" chart with the two legs of the Y on the left.
Anyhoo, here's one of the charts:


July 26, 2011
Crestmont Research on Current P/E Multiples and 2011-12 Market Decline Risk
We Crestmont.*...
...*I came across Crestmont during the deflation scare of ought-two/ought-three.
I was wading through the academic literature on asset class performance under various inflation regimes and came across their Y-curve on page 21 of this PDF. Good solid stuff.

Just about everything on their Stock Market page is worth a look, by pros and pups alike.
Attentive readers will know where we lifted the flashing hearts from, I'd forgotten I'd used it in another context.