We chronicled some of our adventures in foreign exchange in this week's ""Euro Will Rise to Head-and-Shoulders Target: Technical Analysis" (EUR/USD)". I'll exerpt some of the Goldman bits* after the jump.
A month ago, Goldman threw in the towel, revising its prior 1.35 estimate for the EURUSD down to 1.15, which prompted us to conclude that it is "Time To Go Long." A month later, following yet another massive P&L loss for all those who are still naive enough to listen to the Thomas Stolper led team, and Goldman has officially flip flopped yet again: "Weaker US growth, reasonably solid Euro-zone macro data and less political/fiscal disruptions than feared have been a feature of the past few weeks, and have motivated another forecast change to reflect more broad USD weakness than before. We now project EUR/$ at 1.35 and 1.38 in 6 and 12 months to reflect the fundamental outlook." And one wonders why GS' treatment of its clients is the butt of all jokes....MOREThey have a table and everything.
EUR/USD is currently at 1.2709.One of these days we'll revisit the oil markets of 2008 to observe what GS did to their clients.
We got lucky in our timing on June 7 when we posted "Ready for a Positive Euro Surprise?":
I was thinking the same thing when I saw the euro at $1.1878 this morning....As it turns out June 7 was the intermediate low at $1.1875. The nice thing about this casino is the payoff for lucky is pari passu with the payoff for skill....
...Followed by ""Goldman Formally Lowers EURUSD Target From $1.35 To $1.15; Time To Go Long"(GS)" on the 10th:
EUR/USD is currently 1.2118.This morning I was asked where I thought the euro would trade and all I could come up with was "higher".
We stuck our necks out and posted "Ready for a Positive Euro Surprise?" at 1.1917 on Monday.
Here's our last post on Goldman and the Euro: "Goldman Sachs on EUR/USD: "no freaking clue where the EUR will go next" (GS)", Fittingly enough on April Fools Day....
...GS has a chart and everything.
These guys get more specific....