Thursday, July 22, 2010

Hurricane Watch: There are now TWO Tropical Waves To Watch (BP)

From the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy:
8:15 a.m. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center says the system in the Bahamas will be declared a tropical depression or tropical storm at 10 a.m. this morning, and that a full advisory will be issued at that time.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: There are two tropical systems deserving of attention this morning so let's get right to it.
The National Hurricane Center says pressures are falling in the vicinity of this wave and that a tropical storm or depression is likely (70 percent chance) to form today or tomorrow as the system moves toward the straits between Florida and Cuba.
As they often do with undeveloped systems, the track models for this wave have shifted substantially during the last 24 hours and they now bring it toward Louisiana or even Texas. Here's one view of the models run this morning:
Colo. State
At the very least this system should bring squalls and strong winds to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill area off the Louisiana coast by Saturday. But will it become more than that?
The storm continues to be affected by some wind shear and dry air in its path, but it appears to be getting its act together. And while waters are warm in the Gulf of Mexico, they aren't explosively warm.
Some models such as the European model, which has been unusually reliable for the last two years, show no development of 97L. And there are few suggestions as yet that this system will actually become a hurricane, even over the Gulf of Mexico....MORE