Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: We are all Japanese Now (July, 2010)

We are fans.*
And so is FT Alphaville:

FT Alphaville Albert Edwards.

Nothing to do here but quote as much of his latest Global Strategy Weekly Posts as we can without the SocGen strategist complaining…
We are at the most dangerous stage in the Ice Age – the ‘post-bubble cycle’. For although it is clear that leading indicators have turned downwards, the choir of sell-side sirens is singing its song of reassurance. The lesson from Japan was that once the cyclical rally is over, any downturn in the leading indicators should find you stuffing beeswax in your ears to block out that lilting melody so as to avoid the jagged rocks of recession.
My views on the outlook could not be clearer. They may be wrong, but at least they are clear. We still call for sub-2% 10y bond yields and equities below March 2009 lows.
I have for a very long time likened events now unfolding with what we saw in Japan a decade ago. Of course there are some major differences, but one can still draw clear parallels to see how extreme equity overvaluations unwind in a post-credit bubble world....MORE

Roger that, Albert; May be in error, never in doubt. Over.
Lowest lows since last low lows. Over.

Today I am suffering some sort of neuronal cross-wiring. I've got Peter Graves in "Airplane" supplying the cadence:
Roger Murdock: We have clearance Clarence.
Captain Oveur:
Roger, Roger. What's our vector Victor?
Captain Oveur:
That's Clarence Oveur. Over.
Roger Murdock:
Roger Murdock:
Captain Oveur:
Combined with Abraham Lincoln's PowerPoint presentation of the Gettysburg Address doing the bullet point thing:


And now please welcome President Abraham Lincoln.
Good morning. Just a second while I get this connection to work. Do I press this button here? Function-F7?
No, that's not right. Hmmm.
Maybe I'll have to reboot. Hold on a minute.
Um, my name is Abe Lincoln and I'm your president. While we're waiting, I want to thank Judge David Wills, chairman of the committee supervising the dedication of the Gettysburg cemetery. It's great to be here, Dave, and you and the committee are doing a great job. Gee, sometimes this new technology does have glitches, but we couldn't live without it, could we? Oh - is it ready? OK, here we go:

 From slide 4:

Review of Key Objectives & Critical Success Factors

-What Makes Nation Unique?
  • -Conceived in Liberty
  • -Men are Equal
-Shared vision
  • -New Birth of Freedom
  • -Gov't of/by/for the people
And slide 6:
  • New Nation
  • Civil War
  • Dedicate Field
  • Dedicated to unfinished work
  • New Birth of Freedom
  • Government not perish
Here are som of our 'Albert' posts. For more use the 'Search blog' box, Keyword "Société Générale" (no need for the accents) or Albert Edwards.

May 25, 2010 
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice..."

April 16, 2010 
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "We Are Now Only One Cyclical Downturn Away From Outright Deflation"

Feb. 24, 2010
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "Stocks Face ‘Ice Age’ Drop as Indicators Peak..." Euro to $1.25; We're all Doomed

Jan. 25, 2010 
Albert Edwards, Societe Generale: "Theft! Were the US & UK central banks complicit in robbing the middle classes?"

Jan. 11, 2010 
Société Générale's Albert Edwards on Employment and Market P/E

And the 2008 series in which he foretold the future and made some of the funniest headlines of the financial crisis:
May 8, 2008
This Week’s Advice: Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio
June 26, 2008
Société Générale: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”
September 5, 2oo8
"Meltdown"-Société Générale
September, 2008
Société Générale: Prepare for the Great Unwind, part Deux