Friday, July 30, 2010

What 2008's #1 Market Timer is Saying Now (disaster to begin July 26)

"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,
But in ourselves, that we are underlings."
Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141)
We've known his name for 20-odd years and visited him on these pages a half dozen times.*
From MarketWatch:

Crawford calls 'Cardinal Climax'
Commentary: Winning letter says disaster to begin Monday
Is "all hell" about to break loose? One veteran letter thinks so -- and it predicted the Crash of 2008.
Unlike almost everyone else, Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives had a fabulous 2008. ( See Jan. 9, 2009, column.) And when I last checked in with it in early 2010, Crawford was predicting a mid-summer massacre ( See Jan. 14 column.)


Now, in its monthly issue published in early July, Crawford predicts "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE" -- beginning, as a matter of fact, on Monday July 26, 2010.
Crawford means it. The letter has been 200% short since June 7, with stops at 11,466 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 10,467, -30.72, -0.29%) and 11.84.56 on the S&P 500 (SPX 1,102, -4.60, -0.42%).

Well, the problem is that Crawford is an astrology letter. This sends many readers (and some editors) into foaming fits. My impeccably scientific attitude: We should just look at its results.

But the opening of Crawford's July issue is definitely the sort of thing that upsets people: "NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE JULY! We mean, of course, the planetary pictures in the sky which are developing towards the tightest harmonic alignments in the most potent areas of the zodiacal circle ever recorded in Earth's written history. These portend increasing and maximizing intensity and rapidity of 'change' on every level of existence: mineral, vegetable, animal, human and spirit. Will Capitalism survive? Will Democracy survive? Will our markets survive? Will governments survive? Will humanity survive? Will Earth survive?
"We don't know, but we'll be SHORT for it!"

Crawford -- along with other astrologers, who however are merely worried about nuclear war, the end of the world etc. -- is impressed with an imminent unusual alignment that apparently involves five key planets.
He writes: "Astrologers call it the 'Cardinal Climax.' It is considered to be the most powerful and important planetary alignment of the modern era. Perhaps it heralds the beginning of the real 'Aquarian Age' or the end of the 'Mayan Calendar.' (After all, what's a few months in a 25,600-year cycle?) These energies actually maximize from July 30 through August 3. There have been 'shadows' preceding and will be echoes afterwards for quite some time."

Crawford adds: "This huge alignment will be followed by a Full Moon on the Fall Equinox and a Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice. We expect the depth and scope of dislocations during this period to exceed anything we have ever witnessed, both in otherwise civilized interaction among nations, and likely our fill in natural disasters."

"We continue to recommend extreme caution and proper emergency measures such as extra food, water, medicines and cash over the next 24 months in particular. Do NOT wait any longer!!"
Let the record, show, however, that Crawford's last issue also repeatedly allowed for what it described as "some attempts to correct an oversold market sometime in July."

What are Crawford's results? Over the year to date through June, the letter is down 0.4% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, definitely better than the negative 5.8% of the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.

Crawford did underperform the market in 2009. ( See Dec. 24, 2009, column.) But even so, over the past three years the letter is up 9.42% annualized versus negative 9.36% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.

Over the many years that it has been followed by Hulbert, Crawford's record has been checkered but interspersed with occasional bursts of eerie prescience. Which is it this time?
Crawford Perspectives usually publishes on the first Monday of each month. But its next issue is delayed until August 9 -- possibly to save mailing costs if the world ends.
"S.E.C. Charges Psychic With Securities Fraud"
(no, it wasn't Arch)
What the #1 Investment Newsletter is Saying Now
Of Bulls, Bears and Rallies
Investing: "Throwing Out the Rule Book" (The best Performing Investment Letter is by an Astrologer)
How not to do Technical Analysis: A-Power Edition (APWR)
First Solar: Chicken Trader Pulling the Plug (FSLR)
Is The Financial Crisis Making You Psychic?
Psychic News Network: Trading Emissions PLC in Bid for Econergy (TRE.L; ECG.L)
Here at PNN we believe...
Still a few kinks in the system. We have to adjust the crystal ball to spot the potential target, not
the bidder.