Thursday, April 1, 2010

Goldman Sachs on EUR/USD: "no freaking clue where the EUR will go next" (GS)

The quote is from ZeroHedge not Goldman. Here's the story:

Maybe Third Time Will Be The Charm: Goldman Capitulates On Second Failed EURUSD Reco; New Target Set At $1.35

Less than a month after Goldman braved the choppy and hypervolatile waters of pillaging and raping its biggest clients (aka tactical FX recos), with first a buy EUR, then sell EUR reco, the firm has captulated, and is calling for a $1.35 target: essentially saying it has no freaking clue where the EUR will go next.

Changing Our EUR/$ Forecasts

The Euro will likely remain stuck between two largely offsetting forces. Cyclical acceleration in the Eurozone and deceleration in the US, external balances and the outlook for earlier monetary policy normalisation by the ECB all suggest upside risks for the Euro. But on the other hand, the uncertainty about Greece and, more importantly, about the institutional set-up of the Eurozone will command a high fiscal risk premium for the foreseeable future. We have revised down our 3mth and 6mth forecasts to the same level as our old 12mth forecast, 1.35 flat. Other forecasts are affected through the Euro crosses.

And even as Goldman clients lost a boatload, Goldman being on the other side of both these trades, made mint....
Very similar to their behavior back in 2008:

It’s official, Goldman capitulates on oil


That ‘’super spike” in oil prices that Goldman insisted would lift crude to $200 a barrel ….? Turned out to be a dagger that has pierced Goldman itself. It never really turned out to be that prescient: instead of the 50% jump in oil that Goldman anticipated back in May, when it made the call with crude trading at $132, the price of a barrel never got more than 11% higher. And has since, of course, lost fully two-thirds of that price in the intervening four months.

Now Goldman is left with the ignomy of summarily abandoning the investors who listen to its research calls, telling them effectively that they’re on their own. On Thursday, Goldman said it was ”closing” its recommendations for oil trades. Meaning that in a perilous time when the traders who pay attention to Goldman’s recommendations could use some guidance the most, Goldman has opted to give them the least. And some traders are furious about it, comparing the maneuver to then-strategist Abby Cohen’s decision to abandon her targets for equity indexes in the fall 2001, citing the uncertainties abounding in the market.

Goldman specifically talked about four trade recommendations it previously issued, and said clients shouldn’t put any stock in them any longer. One particular trade, a Nymex-WTI swap on the 2012 contract, issued in September, when crude already had declined to below $70, suggested that the contract would reflate to a range of $120 to $140. Obviously, that hasn’t happened....MORE

They bagged the pension funds on that one. I wonder who fell for the currency play?