I don't have anything concrete I can point to but 1.50 EUR/USD almost feels as if someone has drawn a line in the sand. As more and more money piles into the trade without movement past that line you start to lose the mo-mo traders and the psychology can shift fast.The next day we repeated the above in "Goldman On The Dollar Carry Trade: "A 20% Reversal In Either 3 Months Or 3 Days"'
If the buck were to turn and head back to say, 1.20, the results for equities and gold would be painful.
I'm just sayin'...
On November 25 the Euro hit it's high for 2009 and we posted "Dollar Sliding Into New Trading Range":
From MarketBeat:The euro hit a fresh high for 2009 at $1.5144 as selloff in the greenback took another big jump in New York afternoon trading....
If you follow this stuff, including this morning's "Germany warns of 'Lehman' crisis if Greece defaults" and "Moore Capital warns of euro zone 'breakdown'" you will still screw up but at least it will be in new and creative ways.
Euro recovery attempt from Asian session low at 1.3370 has been capped at 1.3420 session high, and the Euro has plunged about 90 pips as concerns about fiscal debt, which pushed the Euro to session lows around 1.3330 at the moment of writing.
The Euro has been hammered by news about soaring public deficits in the Euro Area, which added concerns to Greece's fiscal trouble. Greece and German bonds differential rose beyond 500 basis points, all time high on Euro history, and Greece CDS price rose for the first time above Iceland's.
If the pair confirms below 1.3340, (Apr 9 low), next support levels could be at 1.3280 (Apr 8 low) and 1.3265 (Mar 25/26 low). On the upside, resistance levels remain at 1.3420 session high, and above here, 1.3450 (Apr 12 hgh) and 1.3525 (Apr 20 high).