Sunday, September 13, 2020

NOAA Declares La Niña conditions are present

And they did it on the day the hurricane season is (statistically at its peak.
From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, September 10:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

10 September 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).
In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, all Nino indices were negative, with the Nino-3.4 index at -0.9°C and the Nino-1+2 and Nino-3 indices cooler than -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies averaged across 180°-100°W were negative [Fig. 3], with the largest departures observed in the east-central Pacific from the surface to 200m depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific were also generally consistent with La Niña, despite sub-seasonal variability during the month. The low-level and upper-level winds were near average for the month as a whole, but enhanced low-level easterly winds were prominent across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during early and late August. Tropical convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions....
....MORE
And from the National Hurricane Center: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png