| U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (9/10/20 - 9/16/20) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Average daily values (Bcf/d):
|
|||
this week
|
last week
|
last year
|
|
| Marketed production |
99.1
|
100.7
|
104.5
|
| Dry production |
87.7
|
89.1
|
92.9
|
| Net Canada imports |
3.9
|
3.6
|
4.7
|
| LNG pipeline deliveries |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
| Total supply |
91.7
|
92.8
|
97.7
|
| Source: IHS Markit Note: LNG pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals. | |||
| U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (9/10/20 - 9/16/20) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Average daily values (Bcf/d):
|
|||
this week
|
last week
|
last year
|
|
| U.S. consumption |
61.8
|
63.7
|
67.2
|
| Power |
32.8
|
35.0
|
37.8
|
| Industrial |
20.8
|
20.7
|
21.0
|
| Residential/commercial |
8.3
|
8.1
|
8.5
|
| Mexico exports |
5.7
|
6.0
|
5.2
|
| Pipeline fuel use/losses |
6.5
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
| LNG pipeline receipts |
7.0
|
4.6
|
6.4
|
| Total demand |
81.1
|
81.1
|
85.8
|
| Source: IHS Markit Note: LNG pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals. | |||
Climateer here: Although our internal models caught the uptick in LNG deliveries to export terminals we completely missed the falloff in demand in the power burn and I'm not exactly sure how such a costly error occurred.
From The Energy Information Administration:
for week ending September 16, 2020 | Release date: September 17, 2020
....Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices fall at most locations with cooler fall temperatures. This report week (Wednesday, September 9, to Wednesday, September 16), the Henry Hub spot price fell 13¢ from $2.19/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.06/MMBtu yesterday after reaching a low of $1.94/MMBtu on Friday. Temperatures were cooler than normal across most of the Lower 48 states and warmer than normal in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 3¢ from a high of $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.92/MMBtu yesterday.
Hurricane Sally makes landfall on the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Sally made landfall as a Category 2 storm yesterday morning near Gulf Shores, Alabama. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSSE) reports that 19% of manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have been evacuated as of yesterday. BSSE estimates that approximately 0.8 Bcf/d or 30%, of the current natural gas production and 27% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut in.
California prices are down as the region continues to battle wildfires. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 31¢ from a high of $3.12/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.81/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 12¢, down from a high of $3.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.43/MMBtu yesterday. The National Interagency Fire Center reports that 106 large wildfires are currently burning across the western United States and that approximately 6.7 million acres of land have burned this year. Smoke from wildfires obscured the sun, and helped keep temperatures across the Lower 48 states a bit cooler, according to the National Weather Service.
Northeast prices decrease. Temperatures in the region were generally close to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, reducing demand for air conditioning. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down $1.21 from a high of $2.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to a low of $1.25/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 70¢ from a high of $1.66/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.96/MMBtu yesterday, the lowest price since October of last year.
The Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot price decreased 35¢ from $1.16/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.81/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Dominion South in southwest Pennsylvania fell 61¢ from $1.51/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.90/MMBtu yesterday.
Permian Basin prices strengthen with end of pipeline maintenance. The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, averaged a low of $1.24/MMBtu last Wednesday, 95¢/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. Yesterday, the price at the Waha Hub averaged $1.52/MMBtu, 54¢/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. An ongoing force majeure on the El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline was lifted yesterday, supporting the increase in prices.
Supply falls amid shut-ins in Gulf of Mexico. According to data from IHS Markit, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.2% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 1.5% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 7.2% from last week.
Demand falls, driven by declines in power generation. Temperatures averaged 65–70 degrees Fahrenheit across most of the Lower 48 states, reducing cooling demand and energy consumption. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 3.0% compared with the previous report week, according to data from IHS Markit. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 6.3% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 2.7%. Industrial sector consumption increased by 0.4%. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 5.7%. Natural gas deliveries to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 7.0 Bcf/d, or 2.4 Bcf/d higher than last week. LNG pipeline receipts reached a high of 7.5 Bcf/d on September 13, the highest level since early May.
U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. A total of 11 LNG vessels (6 from Sabine Pass, 2 each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, and 1 from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 41 Bcf departed the United States between September 10 and September 16, 2020, according to shipping data provided by Marine Traffic.
....MUCH MORE
