Friday, September 11, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

The current price, 2.295 -0.028 seems like a dandy place for sentiment to shift to the long side.
The day's low (so far) is 2.287.

From the Energy Information Administration September 10:
In the News:
U.S. net natural gas exports begin to decline in spring 2020
In 2017, the United States became a net natural gas exporter (exported more than it imported) on an annual basis for the first time in nearly 60 years. Since then, the United States has more than doubled its net natural gas exports every year: from 0.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017 to 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.2 Bcf/d in 2019. Although growth in net natural gas exports continued in the first six months of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, net exports began declining in spring 2020 with a global economic slowdown and COVID-19 containment efforts. Starting in April, U.S. gross LNG exports, gross pipeline exports to Canada and Mexico, and gross pipeline imports from Canada started to decline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)’s recently released Natural Gas Monthly, which includes data through June 2020.

The United States is a net exporter of LNG and natural gas by pipeline to Mexico and is a net importer of natural gas by pipeline from Canada. In the first half of 2020, net exports averaged 7.3 Bcf/d or nearly 80% (3.2 Bcf/d) higher than during the same period last year. From January 2020 through June 2020, net LNG exports increased by almost 60% (2.4 Bcf/d), net pipeline exports to Mexico increased by 4% (0.2 Bcf/d), and net imports by pipeline from Canada declined by 12% (0.6 Bcf/d) compared to the first six months of 2019.

LNG trade. U.S. LNG exports continued strong growth in the first three months of 2020, averaging 7.9 Bcf/d, which was 3.9 Bcf/d (98%) higher compared to the same period last year. LNG exports started to decline in April amid a global reduction in natural gas consumption and a decline in global natural gas and LNG prices. In June 2020, U.S. LNG exports averaged 3.6 Bcf/d, or less than half of January’s export levels, and continued to decline in July to 3.1 Bcf/d.
U.S. LNG imports in the first half of 2020 were similar to import levels in the first half of 2019, averaging 0.2 Bcf/d. About one-half (56%) of LNG imported in the first six months of 2020 went to the Everett LNG terminal offshore Boston, Massachusetts, primarily to meet New England’s winter demand. Several LNG cargoes were also imported to Cove Point terminal in Maryland and to Elba Island terminal in Georgia.

Trade by pipeline with Mexico. U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline to Mexico averaged 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019 following an expansion of cross-border pipeline capacity from the United States to Mexico. In the first half of 2020, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 5.1 Bcf/d, a 4% increase (0.2 Bcf/d) compared to the same period last year. In June 2020, a part of the Wahalajara pipeline system, which connects natural gas supply from the U.S. Permian Basin at the Waha Hub to Mexico’s central and western regions, was placed in service. Since then, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have increased to 5.4 Bcf/d, mainly displacing LNG imports from the United States and other countries. EIA projects that U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico will continue to grow in the coming months....
....U.S. LNG exports are flat week over week. Six LNG vessels (three from Corpus Christi, two from Freeport, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 21 Bcf departed the United States between September 3 and September 9, according to shipping data provided by Marine Traffic..... 
....MUCH MORE

Expect LNG shipments to head higher for at minimum the next couple weeks.