A 10% collapse in four months would be an inflation shock from U.S. imports and might cause Germany to push for a decline in the euro to protect their export industries and thus set off a competitive devaluation or if China jumps in, a currency war.
From MarketWatch:
‘The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply,’ warns prominent Yale economist
Stephen Roach, Yale University senior fellow and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, has a warning for U.S. dollar bulls. The prominent economist says that the era of the U.S. buck may be coming to an end and is forecasting a 35% decline soon in the U.S. currency against its major rivals, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings.....MUCH MORE, including video
The lecturer said during CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday that the rise of China and the decoupling of the U.S. from its trade partners is setting the stage for a dramatic weakening of the U.S. currency in the next few years that is likely to end the supremacy of the monetary unit as the world’s reserve currency.
“The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply,” he told the business network.
Roach’s comments follow similarly themed op-ed that he wrote in Bloomberg last week, in which he specifically declared that the “era of the U.S. dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.
In that article, the economist said that the U.S. economy is already “stressed” by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggested that the recession that has gripped the U.S. in February amid the public health crisis will only amplify the dollar’s woes....
Previously:
June 12
"A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming"—Stephen Roach
June 4
The Dollar Continues Its Stately Decline
May 26
"King Dollar Be Could Double Topping..."
Also March 16's "What would be useful for the cause would be a plunge in the dollar", posted in the middle of the big spike (at 98.09) as folks scrambled for bucks:
