"Rogoff: Why This Time is Really Different"

Ken Rogoff's co-author of  2009's "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly", Carmen Reinhart, has moved on to be Chief Economist of the World Bank so Ken is doing a solo act now.
From Investopedia, June 15:

Internationally acclaimed economist Ken Rogoff on how this crisis will shape us.

The financial and economic crisis we find ourselves in today is unlike any other we have experienced in our recent history. It was brought on by a health pandemic, that quickly turned into a steep and nasty recession as economies around the world were forced to come to a grinding halt. The short, and long-term effects of this crisis, however, may amplify many of the trends that have been in place for several decades.

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and internationally respected expert on recessions, says this downturn doesn't fit neatly into any prior models. His 2009 best-selling and widely cited book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly1 , examines the booms and busts that helped shape today's global economy. The coronavirus pandemic and ensuing recession have profoundly amplified trends that were already at work in the global economy, but how it evolves from here is the great unknown.

This time is certainly different.

As we attempt to begin what is likely to be a long and winding recovery, I interviewed Rogoff via video conference to see how he envisions the long-term effects of this crisis and how it will shape the dynamics of the global economy five to ten years from now. Here is an edited version of our recent conversation.
  
Income Inequality and De-globalization

Silver: What will be the most important economic impacts of this pandemic and recession when we look back 10 years from now?

Rogoff: The political ramifications will be just massive. There were trends already in place, such as de-globalization and populism, and my guess is those trends will be reinforced—and not just in the United States. Obviously, the concern about inequality just blows up in this situation with 20% unemployment. People who don't have adequate space and adequate resources are suffering inordinately. 

 

Silver: So let's talk about globalization. There was a trend away from it. Even though really it has defined the last several decades. Do you see that becoming more extreme, and do you see this rise of nationalism and re-shoring continuing?....

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