Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Loosey Goosey Monetary Policy

I was thinking of a new feature, Charts Without Context:

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fd6b03dcf-acd0-47ba-b792-89613d3599b2.png?source=Alphaville
but in this case the narrative surrounding the above is just too darn important to mess about.
From Markets Now (then) June 16:
....None of this stuff is doing anything to share prices today, which are up after Wall Street rallied from an early loss of more than 2 per cent to end up nearly 1 per cent. The trigger was probably the Fed saying that from today it’ll make direct purchases of individual corporate bonds via the emergency lending programme. (The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility has been buying ETFs since May 12.) If there was any doubt left that the Fed is the market it’s now been erased, and questions are why we’re throwing absolutely everything at tightening credit spreads when there’s seemingly no financial sector crisis can wait for another day. Here’s BoA to say, “Lord, reattach us to fundamentals, but not yet”:
By delivering on the SMCCF in the way investors expected following the announcement, the Fed preserves 100% credibility. We think eligible bonds could outperform for another two weeks and then investors are pushed into non-eligible.
And Canaccord to develop on the point:
One reason the market moves lower in a bear market is investors typically have to wait for the Fed to figure out how serious the problem is, but this Fed has been way ahead of the curve since late March with very clear language that has been backed up with action as evidenced by yesterday’s SMCCF expansion. This monetary support has led to a historic rise in Money Supply (M2) and a Personal Savings Rate of 33% suggesting there is ample liquidity to spend once we fully reopen economic activity. . . . 
....MUCH MORE

Now, if only we could get that giant liquidity injection turning over a bit faster: