Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Agricultural Commodities: "Farmers Are Struggling To Break Even Amid A Surge In Global Wheat Production"

From Harvest Public Media:*
Even as more people bake during the pandemic, some wheat farmers may need help to break even this year.

Jimmy Kinder, a farmer from southwestern Oklahoma, is in what he calls “wheat crop mode.” Kinder, a fourth-generation farmer, mainly grows wheat and raises cattle. Like many farmers across Oklahoma and the Great Plains region right now, Kinder’s wheat is ready to harvest.
Kinder says things were looking good this year until Mother Nature brought a freeze in early April. The weather took approximately half of his yield because the wheat froze right when it was starting to flower and it was vulnerable to freeze.

“Today’s wheat crop is all about trying to stay in business till things get better,” Kinder says.
While the Kinder’s wheat grew, the wheat heads are not producing as much grain as expected. There’s also a flash drought in his area. But that’s actually good news for him.
“That's excellent for wheat harvest and we're able to get the harvest out with dry ground,” Kinder says.

Dry conditions through the winter wheat belt may mean that harvest season will progress quickly in some southern states. Kim Anderson, a professor of agricultural marketing at Oklahoma State University and Extension economist, says the dry heat is good for harvesting.

“Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, we're just positioned where our crop was mature enough to withstand the dry conditions and prepare us for harvest,” Anderson says.

As more people are baking during the pandemic, he saw wheat prices rise. It was only a small increase. Overall, a global surplus has pushed wheat prices down. He says the world is producing 28.2 billion bushels of wheat — an all-time record. Anderson says countries in the Black Sea region like Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have been steadily increasing its production of wheat.....
....MUCH MORE

*Public Radio Stations:
KCUR 89.3 in Kansas City, Missouri;
Iowa Public Radio;
NET (which operates public TV and radio networks statewide in Nebraska); 
and WILL and the Illinois Newsroom.

As noted in June 11's monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (June 11) WASDE supplies are ample with record planting on top of record existing stocks:
This year, because planting conditions were almost perfect in the U.S.—and the downward pressure that implies—we decided to make our first WASDE link in May rather than in April or even March as we have in years past.
Thus giving time for the (literal) bean-counters to establish what looks to be a very ample baseline to refer to as the season progresses.
First up, from FinViz, Wheat, which is seeing the most movement today. Two weeks of hourly action:


Down 6 1/2 cents at 4.99 3/4.
Soybeans and corn are down a penny, up a penny....