Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Crop Progress Report Aug 5: Why Ag Futures Didn't Collapse On Yesterday's News

Partly because, on the China trade front, the worst case scenario came to pass i.e. an inversion of the old saw "buy on mystery, sell on history". When the market's worst fear is realized, What's left?

Two weeks of beans:   


And partly because of the late start to the planting season caused by cool/wet weather this spring, much of the soybean, wheat and corn didn't even get planted and that which did get in the ground is weeks behind schedule meaning it will have to be left in the fields past normal harvest time, greatly raising the risk of frost damaging what is out there.
From DTN's Progressive Farmer:

Good-to-Excellent Ratings for Corn at 57%, Soybeans at 54%
This article was originally posted at 3:03 p.m. CDT on Monday, Aug. 5. It was last updated at 4:00 p.m. CDT on Monday, Aug. 5.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Corn and soybean development remained well behind the average pace at the end of last week and good-to-excellent condition ratings remain the lowest since 2012, according to the latest USDA NASS Crop Progress report released Monday.

As of Sunday, Aug. 4, 78% of corn was silking, up 20 percentage points from 58% the previous week but 15 percentage points behind the five-year average of 93%. That was an improvement from last Monday's report when silking was running 25 percentage points behind average. Corn in the dough stage was pegged at 23%, up 10 percentage points from 13% the previous week but 19 percentage points behind the five-year average of 42%. That was further behind average than in last Monday's report when corn in the dough stage was 10 percentage points behind the average.

"Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin are the major laggards in the percent of corn silking, with Michigan lowest at 44%," said DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

Corn's good-to-excellent condition rating was pegged at 57%, down 1 percentage point from 58% the previous week and still the lowest good-to-excellent rating for this time of year in seven years.
Soybean development was also running well behind normal last week. The portion of the crop that was blooming was up 15 percentage points last week to reach 72% as of Sunday. That was 15 percentage points behind the five-year average of 87%, an improvement from last Monday's report when blooming was running 22 percentage points behind the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods reached 37% as of Sunday, 26 percentage points behind the average pace of 63%. That was further behind average than in last week's report, when soybeans setting pods was 24 percentage points behind the average pace.....
....MUCH MORE

From the USDA:
Crop Progress (15 page PDF)

We'll have more later today.