Thursday, August 28, 2014

"The Relative Weakness in Gold Ain't Over Yet"

Long suffering readers know we have been bearish on gold since FT Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska pointed out the TIPS/shiny correlations back in December 2012, and have been calling for an $875 bottom for the last 14 months.
From Dragonfly Capital:
Gold ($GLD) has been weak relative to the S&P 500 ($SPY). This has been the case since mid 2011. And throughout 2014 there have been signs that there might be an inflection point in the making. Gold might be ready to strengthen against equities. But the past few weeks have shown that it is not time for the fat lady to sing yet.
gld -spy
The chart above shows nearly 10 years of relative performance of Gold to the S&P 500. It traces out a a bullish Shark harmonic, which sounds great for a reversal. Except that the bullish part of that harmonic pattern kicks in after it has fallen to point D, another 25% lower in the ratio. Or worse at a ratio of 0.21 another 45% lower. Ugh. She had better take a seat or order some food...
See also:
Spot Gold Down $21.80 as HSBC, Credit Suisse Lower Forecasts (GLD)