Saturday, August 30, 2014

Hurricane Watch: The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

This is just about unheard of for Labor Day weekend.
From Wunderblog Aug. 29:
Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night. With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don't expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday....MORE
His Aug. 30 post:
Invest 99L in Western Caribbean a Threat to Develop on Monday

There have been 5 large storms in the Pacific this season but since our focus is on the insurance/re-insurance companies we watch the Atlantic. Here is the most widely accepted shorthand of activity, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which measures intensity x duration, via Weather Bell:

2014 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]
  Basin   Current YTD   Normal YTD % of Normal YTD Yearly Climo*
  Northern Hemisphere   280.0795   244 114% 562
  Western N Pacific   127.942   129 99% 302
  Central N Pacific   0.64      
  Eastern N Pacific   126.215   76 166% 138
  North Atlantic   21.515   30 71% 104
  North Indian   4.4075   7 62% 18
  Southern Hemisphere +   197.643   209 94% 209
  Global   412.0375   416 99% 771

*Climatology from historical 1981-2010 Tropical cyclone best track datasets