Tuesday, August 27, 2024

"Solar Stocks Continue to Struggle. This One Is the Only Winner"

Life is easier if you can figure out the class of the field.

And if your mandate says you have to have solar exposure - so to speak - this is the name, at least among the North American companies.

From Barron's, August 26:

First Solar stock bucks the trend of the solar industry. 

First Solar stock is outshining the solar energy sector this year while the rest of the stocks have dimmed.

It hasn’t been a good year for solar stocks. The Invesco Solar ETF has dropped 20% in 2024, putting it on pace to have its worst year since 2023 when it fell 27%.

But while almost all other solar stocks take a hit, FirstSolar shines.

There’s a handful of reasons why solar companies are struggling. For one, the rise in interest rates has hit demand. Higher rates increase the financing costs to put solar panels on customers’ homes, and at a time when inflation continues to hit people’s wallets, that has negatively affected the industry.

Investors are also mindful that former President Donald Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. Trump has been critical of clean energy and President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, which gives tax credits to those who install solar panels and is supposed to help boost demand....

.... “We argue that First Solar’s differentiated thin-film technology, combined with solid growth prospects and strong visibility backed by a backlog with orders extending through 2030E, make it a compelling investment opportunity,” Clarksons Securities analyst Roald Hartvigsen wrote in a note on Aug. 14. He initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $270 price target....

....MUCH MORE

As noted a couple years ago, we have quite a bit of history with this one.

January 2022
Chartology: First Solar (FSLR)

The stock is currently changing hands at $86.36 down $0.92 (-1.06%).

We haven't posted much on the solar stocks over the last few years, primarily because their fortunes are so dependent on policy moves (and tsunamis of cash) from Washington.

Additionally the truth of the matter is that the biggest beneficiary of the solar component of the "Build Back Better" bill, if it had passed in 2021 was going to be the Chinese because of their dominance in silicon-based solar, from the silicon ingots to the cells to the panels.

First Solar is different in that their main technology is not silicon based.

We covered the rather remarkable history of the stock from the $20 IPO to the $317 top tick to the subsequent closing low $11.77. Use the 'search blog' box if interested, keyword: FSLR.

The point of all this is to be prepared should the BBB be revived in 2022....

It was, as the Inflation Reduction Act, First Solar is the biggest beneficiary, $10 billion or so.

Unfortunately for the "Chartology" post I used a dynamic one-year chart meaning we now get only the last twelve months rather than the 12 months to Jan. 2022.

In late pre-market action the stock is changing hands at $232.49 down $0.70 (-0.30%) on a generally down day.