Monday, August 26, 2024

"Kazatomprom’s Uranium Shortfall Sparks Speculation of Russian Takeover on Supply"

From Canada's The Deep Dive, August 25:

Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s national atomic company and the world’s largest producer of uranium, is facing significant challenges as it revises down its production targets. Amid these shortfalls, there is growing speculation that a substantial portion of Kazakhstan’s uranium output is being funneled directly to Russia, further intensifying the geopolitical implications of the company’s struggles.

The most glaring example of Kazatomprom’s difficulties lies within the Budenovskoye joint venture, a partnership between Kazatomprom and the Stepnogorsk Mining and Chemical Combine (SGCC), with Russia’s Rosatom holding a substantial stake through SGCC. Budenovskoye is a critical component of Kazakhstan’s uranium production strategy, particularly sections 6 and 7, which were expected to drive significant increases in output over the coming years.

However, recent reports reveal that production forecasts for these sections have been drastically revised.

Initially, Kazatomprom had planned to produce 2,500 tons of uranium from Budenovskoye’s sections 6 and 7 in 2024, with a sharp increase to 4,500 tons in 2025 and full capacity of 6,000 tons by 2026. These figures have now been slashed. Production in 2024 is now guided to just 500 tonnes, and in 2025 is expected to reach only 1,300 tons, a steep decline from earlier estimates. The target for 2026 has also been reduced to 3,750 tons, with the full 6,000-ton nameplate capacity now pushed back to 2027.

This significant reduction, amounting to a shortfall of 3,200 tons (8.32 million pounds) in 2025 and 2,250 tons (5.85 million pounds) in 2026, is particularly concerning because all production from these sections is contracted to Rosatom under a three-year deal stretching from 2024 to 2026....

....MUCH MORE

We didn't post on this latest warning, which sparked a 5.5% Friday pop in the pros favorite Western name, Cameco, thinking that CCJ would pull back after the excitement died down but so far, no. 

Because of that our most recent post on the producers is June 16's "Deadly and Wildly Profitable, Uranium Fever Breaks Out" which had these links as an outro:

Uranium Miner Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Partners To Buy Nuke Maker Westinghouse (CCJ; BEP)

April 8: Australia: "Uranium price creates new ASX boom"

April 3: Uranium—"Epic Fail The New Junta in Niger Tells the United States to Pack Up Its War and Go Home"

 Related March 5: "Uranium Firms Revive Forgotten Mines as Price of Nuclear Fuel Soars"

 Related, January 14: "World’s Biggest Uranium Miner Warns of Production Shortfall"

And if interested, see also "Trans-Uranic Express: The First Uranium Boom and Lessons For Today's Investor".

And something to tuck in the back of the reptile brain, part of the matrix for fashioning your plan for world domination:

European Bank For Reconstruction and Development Says Central Asia Is Where The Action Is

Say Hi to Mackinder for me should you see him on the Silk Road.

January 14: "World’s Biggest Uranium Miner Warns of Production Shortfall"

November 2023: Uranium's Epic Rally Says Lots About the World Right Now

November 2023: "U.S. Re-enters the Nuclear Fuel Game"

Finally, as noted in an earlier post, a couple names:

...Which brings us right back around to green power. CCJ for the timid and "NAC Kazatomprom" for the adventurous. Dually listed LSE (KAP) and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, Astana (KAZP)