Monday, August 19, 2024

Capital Markets: "Dollar Losses Extended, Led by the Japanese Yen"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The dollar settled last week on a soft note, and follow-through selling today pushed it lower against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today. Just as some observers were talking about a resumption of the yen carry-trades, the yen has popped up. The yen has a little more than 2.2% against the dollar Friday and today. Unlike previous yen surge, the Antipodeans (candidates for the long leg of the carry trades) have traded well. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars are up more than 1% over these two sessions. The Canadian dollar is weakest performer over this period, up a little more than a third of one percent. It often lags on the crosses in a softer US dollar environment.

The yen's surge seemed to weigh on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei fell nearly 1.8%, but most other large bourses in the region but South Kore advanced. Recall that last week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by 4.25% to snap a four-week slide. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer. It is a four-day advance in tow coming into today. It rose nearly 2.5% last week. US index futures are struggling today after last week's advance (5.3% for the Nasdaq and ~4% for the S&P 500). Benchmark 10-year yield are softer today, even in China, where Beijing it trying to resist lower bond yields. European yields are 2-3 bp lower and the 10-year US Treasury yield is near 3.87%, off a little more than a basis point. A weaker dollar and softer yields helped lift gold to a marginal new record high of almost $2510 today before consolidating. October WTI is trading about 1% lower, near last week's low set before the weekend (~$74.50).

Asia Pacific
The Japanese economy grew 3.1% at an annualized pace in Q2 after contracting 2.3% in Q1....

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