From the Sydney Morning Herald, April 4:
2023 will be seen as a renaissance year for uranium, with the controversial commodity closing out the year at around US$91 a pound, having kicked off the year at closer to US$48.
2024 was also notable for uranium when it touched a 16 year high of US$106 in February before settling back in at around US$90 where it started the year. In any case, the uranium price is now a far cry from the mid-twenties where it was wallowing just 5 years ago.
Perhaps more importantly however, there is a general acceptance in the market that uranium projects will hang together economically at around US$100 a pound which means it is game on now for those uranium companies that have been warehousing their projects over the last few years.
Demand for uranium to power a clean-energy future and reduce pollution from carbon emissions has boosted the commodity’s fortunes and many countries now see uranium as the key when it comes to meeting clean energy targets. Of equal importance is the dark shadow cast by the nuclear disaster in Ukraine’s Chernobyl appears to have finally lifted on the industry. It is perhaps ironic that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia that followed are probably partially responsible for the hike in the uranium price.
On the demand side, the United States and 20 other countries have indicated that their nuclear power will be tripled by 2050.
At the United Nation’s COP28 climate change conference, 22 countries signed up to the goal of tripling global nuclear energy capacity by 2050, believing it to be the only likely way forward to achieve stated emissions targets.
China is leading the nuclear energy pack, with 22 reactors under construction from the proposed 58 new global reactors to be built, while Japan has restarted several projects to increase nuclear power output. France is also looking to construct 14 new reactors, Bulgaria is planning to build four, with Italy planning to introduce nuclear to its energy mix from as early as 2032.
Whilst uranium has been on an impressive upward trajectory for the last five years, it has nonetheless taken a breather of late.
Uranium prices fell below US$100 per pound for the first time in seven weeks in late February, after the United States Government refrained from banning imports of Russian nuclear fuel in its latest sanctions package, easing concerns of supply risks emerging in the global marketplace.
The United States House of Representatives passed a bill in December last year to ban imports of Russian uranium, although the bill has stalled in the Senate.
If passed, the bill would ban the imports 90 days after its enactment, subject to various waivers, including if the U.S energy secretary determines no alternative sources of supply were available, or if it is decided that imported shipments of the nuclear fuel are in the national interest.
The world’s largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan’s US$11 billion (AU$16.6 billion) National Atomic Co. Kazatomprom, has signalled flat production forecasts for this year, while Canada’s Cameco Corporation downgraded production estimates last September.
The inability to quickly ramp up output in a rising price environment could be a further positive for the price going forward, with some uranium analysts remaining bullish.
Terra Capital’s uranium pundit Jeremy Bond recently said: “In Australia, we don’t see it because we’re just anti-nuclear. But China I think needs to do nine reactors a year for the next 10 years or something. There’s 450 reactors globally now. And they’re looking to build 90 over the next 10 years. We think the long-term story is real, the short-term story is real — as in there’s a physical squeeze in the market at the moment. So, you’ve got a short-term story in a spot market squeeze and then a long-term story and I just think the adoption of nuclear is going to become more mainstream.”....
....MUCH MORE
Related March 5: "Uranium Firms Revive Forgotten Mines as Price of Nuclear Fuel Soars"
Related, January 14: "World’s Biggest Uranium Miner Warns of Production Shortfall"
And something to tuck in the back of the reptile brain, part of the matrix for fashioning your plan for world domination:
European Bank For Reconstruction and Development Says Central Asia Is Where The Action Is
Say Hi to Mackinder for me should you see him on the Silk Road.
