Friday, April 26, 2024

"How China plans to win the global EV war" (plus the IEA’s Global EV Outlook-2024)

Well, the West had a good run. I suppose we can all become models and influencers now.

From The Australian Financial Review, April 25:

The Biden administration and European governments are increasingly alarmed at the potential for China’s EV ambitions to put their own car manufacturers at risk. 

China wants to replicate its spectacularly successful strategy in flooding global markets with cheaper manufactured goods that drive most Western competitors out of business.

A key battleground is the supply of electric vehicles – using an ever more advanced version of technology exports to leverage global efforts on emissions reduction.

The contradictions between the experience and expectations of Chinese EV car makers compared with those in Europe and the US are obvious in the International Energy Agency’s latest report on EVs.

The report predicts more than one in five cars sold this year will be electric, 17 million globally. In the first three months of 2024, numbers are up by 25 per cent – around the same percentage increase as a year ago, but from a larger base.

An optimistic IEA executive director Fatih Birol maintains continued momentum is clear in the data. “Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth,” he says. “The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion.”

That momentum will also pick up due to steadily falling prices. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will no doubt be delighted by the impact on Australian consumers’ low take-up of EVs.

But how does this fit with evidence of slowing customer enthusiasm for EV purchases in most Western countries? Yes, numbers are growing – just not as quickly as anticipated in the broader consumer market now early adopters have been accommodated and mass market buyers are more concerned about range and charging facilities as well as cost.

Birol concedes the momentum is stronger in some markets than others.

The reluctance is most obvious in the US – despite the Biden administration’s subsidies – but is also showing up in weakening sales growth in Europe. The results have already led to many traditional automakers cutting back or delaying their investment plans to shift away from internal combustion engine vehicles.

The catch for them is that Chinese exporters, led by BYD, are driving much of what growth there is in EV sales by savagely undercutting them on prices....


Also at the AFR: "Retirement made me feel invisible – so I became a male model

Here's the IEA:

Global EV Outlook 2024
Moving towards increased affordability 

As we mentioned regarding Tesla before the last earnings report, a few days ago:
"Is Elon Musk About To Force Everyone To View Tesla As An AI Company After Earnings?" (TSLA)
It is possible that Mr. Musk knows more about electric vehicles and the retail market for electric vehicles than I do. And it is possible that he intuits something about the industry or the regulatory or government policy framework toward electric vehicles that he hopes to either guard against or take advantage of.

And it's possible he's just a self-made centibillionaire loony....