Friday, July 29, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Yesterday was the largest upmove of the year (8%) with some follow-through today:

Although we were pointing out the coming heat wave back on July 13 with "Natural Gas: 'Massive heat dome forecast to bake much of U.S. by late next week'" it took the market an extra seven days to realize how much gas would go into powering the air conditioners.

Now the thing to focus on is the fact that gas in storage is very, very high.

$2.891 last , +0.018.
From the Energy Information Administration:


(For the Week Ending Wednesday, July 27, 2016)

  • Spot prices at most market locations rose this report week (Wednesday, July 20, to Wednesday, July 27). The Henry Hub spot price rose 8¢ from $2.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.80/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the August 2016 contract expired yesterday at $2.672/MMBtu, up 1¢ from last Wednesday. The September 2016 contract rose to $2.660/MMBtu, up 4¢ Wednesday to Wednesday.
  • Net injections to working gas totaled 17 Bcf for the week ending July 22. Working gas stocks are 3,294 Bcf, which is 15% greater than the year-ago level and 19% greater than the five-year (2011-15) average for this week.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, July 22, the natural gas rig count fell by 1 to 88. Oil-directed rigs increased by 14 to 371. The number of miscellaneous rigs increased by 2 during the week. The total rig count increased by 15, and now stands at 462.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 10¢, closing at $4.87/MMBtu for the week ending July 22. The price of ethane, propane, and butane fell 6%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The price of isobutane was flat, and the price of natural gasoline rose 1%.
Heat drives price increases. As temperatures rose this report week, the Henry Hub spot price increased 8¢ from $2.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.80/MMBtu yesterday. At the Chicago Citygate, prices gained 3¢ from $2.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.75/MMBtu yesterday.

California prices rise on extreme heat this week. Like most areas of the country, California experienced hot weather this week. Maximum temperatures reached into the upper 90s this week, and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) urged consumers to conserve electricity in anticipation of high power demand. At the SoCal Citygate, prices gained 40¢ this week, from $3.02/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.42/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at the PG&E Citygate, which serves areas farther north, where temperatures were more moderate, rose 15¢ from $3.00/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.15/MMBtu yesterday.

Northeast prices increase. Temperatures in Boston reached into the 90s this week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices rose 21¢ from $2.74/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.95/MMBtu yesterday. Similarly, at the Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices rose 18¢ from $2.21/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.39/MMBtu yesterday....
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jul 21, 2016