David Keohane at FT Alphaville:
Below the break is just one of what we are sure will be many US election guesswork charts.
It’s from HSBC this time and includes solid ‘buy gold’ and ‘currency war’ moments....MORE, including HSBC's grid of outcomes.
The shorthand at the top of each column could be expanded thusly:
Status quo/gridlock (Democratic president, Republican or divided Congress): Limited impact on current economic outlook
Bigger government (Democratic president, Democratic Congress): Modestly higher growth, higher budget deficits
Mainstream conservative (Republican president and Congress): Short-term growth boost, higher deficits and inflation
Populist overhaul (Republican president and Congress): Spike in economic uncertainty; after short boost to GDP growth from tax cuts, stagflation could set in; inflation could rise to 4-5% by 2018...