Monday, July 18, 2016

Morning Agricultural Markets: "...Soy Dips, Grains Gain in 'Schizophrenic' Market"

As noted after that July 1, July 5 set of moves:
We don't do much with soybeans, here's an example why:
Two trading days, how the heck do you deal with that?
From Agrimoney:

How to describe grain markets at the movement?
"Schizophrenic," said Benson Quinn Commodities, adding that soybean futures in particular had "traded up and down like a toilet seat".
And the somewhat-contrasting thinking on prices was evident again in early deals on Monday, when it was seat down for soybean futures for November, which fell by 1.0% to $10.47 a bushel as of 09:25 UK time (03:25 Chicago time).
This, even as best-traded December corn futures gained 0.8% to $3.61 a bushel.
'Forecast has trended slightly cooler'
How come? Well, of course traders are focused on the Midwest weather outlook, and whether it contains sufficient heat and dryness to damage growing spring crops, such as corn, cotton and soybeans.
"Over the next week, traders will be watching three things - weather, weather and weather," said Darren Frye at ag advisory group Water Street Solutions.
And the outlook for a forthcoming spell of testing conditions has turned marginally less threatening, at least according to MDA.
"The Midwest corn/soybean belt forecast is wetter in northwest areas on Tuesday," in the run-up to the high temperature ridge setting in, the weather service said.
And in the six-to-10 day outlook, during the hot spell, "the forecast has trended slightly cooler in the western and northern Midwest".
'Increasing stress'

However, that is not to say that the weather looks like being benign.

"Hot and dry weather in western Midwest areas will create stress on corn and soybeans later this week," MDA said.
And in the six-to-10 day outlook, "despite slightly cooler temperatures in the western Midwest mostly hot and dry weather will allow soil moisture to decline, thus increasing stress on corn and soybeans".
Commodity Weather Group said that temperatures of 90s-100s Fahrenheit were expected in Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri from Wednesday through Saturday, with most other Midwest areas seeing "peak heat" Thursday to Saturday, typically in the 90s.
'Limit the intensity of the heat'
Nonetheless, "the combination of hottest areas in the far west and dry spots around the Great Lakes should still encompass 20% or less of the Corn Belt that will encounter notable stress," Commodity Weather Group said.
And looking longer term, to the 16-to-30 day outlook, "while guidance continues to support a broad, warm pattern, showers remain supported as well to limit the intensity of the heat and focus the main dryness concerns on the eastern 25% of the Midwest".
With soybean investors particularly concerned about conditions next month, a crucial and weather-dependent period for the development of the US crop (with August more important for corn, bringing the sensitive pollination period), the outlook was certainly not so supportive for soybeans....

Last Chg
Corn 360-0+1-6
Soybeans 1045-6-11-4
Wheat 428-2+3-4