Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Societe Generale's Albert Edwards and CLSA's Russell Napier Walk Into a Bär

With the bär being Bob Janjuah?

Weak attempt at humor, 'Bär' is bear in German .
Very weak.
Albert and Russell, with Bob and Zulauf looking on
On to FT Alphaville:

“If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak”
Dan McCrum, in his new-ish role as the FT’s Capital Markets Editor, went along to the Albert Show on Tuesday – the annual SocGen strategy presentation fronted the bank’s famous (equity) bear Albert Edwards. Dan’s summation:
Albert was out bear-ed by the guest speaker, Russell Napier.
But Albert is not a man to be out bear-ed. If anyone is going to out-Albert Albert, it will be Albert himself, and so to his freshly printed Global Strategy Weekly. Emphasis his…
Investors are coming to terms with what a Chinese renminbi devaluation means for Western markets. It means global deflation and recession. The coming carnage is an indirect result of the failure of the Fed’s QE. It may not have done much to boost US growth, but it certainly inflated global asset prices into the stratosphere. The one area though, where US QE did unambiguously boost growth was in emerging markets (EM) as surplus money poured into these supposedly superior investment opportunities, leading to massive EM foreign exchange intervention to hold their currencies down. This turned ineffective US QE into very effective EM QE in terms of boosting EM economic growth. A commodity bubble and the resultant US shale investment boom were all consequences of the Fed’s QE. The illusion of prosperity is shattered as boom now turns to bust. But I do hope this time around the Queen won’t ask, as she did in November 2008, why nobody saw this coming!
The SocGen man has said repeatedly that if economic prosperity could be delivered by using loose monetary policy to inflate asset prices, then Argentina would be the richest country in the world. The Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan appear not to be aware of this....MORE
Previously on the Gruesome Twosome (+1) show:

September 2009
"Eat your heart out Albert Edwards": Royal Bank of Scotland Calls for 550 S&P (and: "South Sea Bubble Redux")
May 2011
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "Many Think I am Mad..." (sub 2% Treasuries, S&P at 400 etc.)
May 2011
Take That Albert Edwards: "The Bear Market Bottom Will Be S&P 400"--Russell Napier 
July 2011
Coming into the Far Turn Russell Napier and Albert Edwards Lead the Gloomster Stakes But Felix Zulauf is Making a Move With an S&P at 500 Prediction
Napier is at 400
Albert says 450
Bob Janjuah trails at 550.
Dec. 2013
CLSA's Russell Napier: "We Are On The Eve Of A Deflationary Shock"
September 2015
Nomura's Bob Janjuah Is Not Dead, In Fact He's Relatively Chipper