Tuesday, January 12, 2016

"Natural Gas Stocks: If This is Improvement, I’d Hate to See a Slump" (FCG)

FCG is the First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas ETF.
Front futures 2.256 down .140. We've been standing aside* as the cold heads to Europe.

From Barron's Stocks to Watch:
Guggenheim’s Subash Chandra and Marshall Coltrain “believe gas fundamentals are improving” but that didn’t stop them from cutting their earnings-per-share forecasts on Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), and Range Resources (RRC). They explain: 
We believe gas fundamentals are improving. The winter is hamstrung by high inventories and mild weather, but we believe the current y-o-y storage surplus of 554 bcf will disappear by next autumn. The contango in the gas curve should steepen with fundamentals supportive of $3+ natural gas by 4Q2016. Colder temperatures should expose improving fundamentals as we continue to expect bullish withdrawals when weather is within 15% of normal....

*Dec. 29
Farewell Natural Gas, It's Been Fun
I think it's time to bid adieu to natty for a while. $2.358 up another 10.2 cents.
Here's the recent action via FinViz:

January    $2.346 up 11.8 cents
February  $2.358 up 10.2 cents

We'll be back after the storage report on Thursday....

Dec. 31
Natural Gas: Storage Withdrawls Broadly In Line With Estimates, Futures Hold Earlier Gains
New front futures (Feb.) are trading up 12.6 cents at 2.340 but we really don't care.*

Jan. 7
Natural Gas Storage Withdrawls Considerably Above Estimates As Winter Takes Hold
$2.3790 up 11.2 cents (4.94%)