Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Smart Research: "Tesla's VIN Numbers Indicate The September Quarter Could Have Been Quite Strong" (TSLA)

This is shaping up as a "Buy on mystery, sell on history" trade. $173.73 down $1.47.
From Forbes:
Craig Froehle, Associate Professor of Operations and Business Analytics at University of Cincinnati, tracks self reported Tesla VIN numbers and makes them available on Tesla’s Forum site. While these should not be relied upon for exact production or sales projections due to a number of variables, I do believe it is worthwhile information.

The chart has the last two months of VIN numbers, September and October, that have been sent to Froehle that shows what VIN numbers were reported and does a rough projection of a daily, weekly, quarterly and yearly run rate. As Froehle writes on the site these are noisy numbers and shouldn’t be relied upon to forecast production or sales. Some of the key variables to take into account on why this data is limiting are...MUCH MORE