Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Tesla and the Barclays Downgrade (TSLA)

That's just perfect. Wait patiently for signs of a bottom and finally make the formal buy rec last night* at $126.
Have BARC junior analyst come out with the downgrade and I'm right back to 2009:
Thoughts on Markets, Investing and Life
**Great. Here I am calling for a midweek pop in the market and Dow futures indicate down 52.
Will this thwart my plans for world domination? In the words of Jimmy James (News Radio):
Mr. James:
"The original title of this book was 'Jimmy James, Capitalist Lion Tamer' but I see now that it's... 'Jimmy James, Macho Business Donkey Wrestler'... you know what it is... I had the book translated into Japanese then back in again into English. Macho Business Donkey Wrestler... well there you go... it's got kind of a ring to it don't it?

Anyway, I wanted to read from chapter three... which is the story of my first rise to financial prominence...

I had a small house of brokerage on Wall Street... many days no business come to my hut... my hut... but Jimmy has fear? A thousand times no. I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey strong bowels were girded with strength like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo... dung.

...Glorious sunset of my heart was fading. Soon the super karate monkey death car would park in my space. But Jimmy has fancy plans... and pants to match. The monkey clown horrible karate round and yummy like cute small baby chick would beat the donkey."
-Episode #57 "Super Karate Monkey Death Car"
By way of
Well there you go. Pretty much says it all.
From Barron's:
Tesla Could Fall 25% as Fire Focus Hits Sales, Barclays Says
Yesterday, shares of Tesla (TSLA) rallied after Elon Musk complained that the focus on three fires in the Model S was unfair.
Unfair, perhaps. But regardless of whether it is one-sided or not, the publicity around Tesla’s fires is likely to hit the upstart automaker’s sales, says Barclays’ Brian Johnson and team. He writes:
After three Model S fires in the past few months, the NHTSA has opened a formal investigation. Tesla strongly defends the safety of its vehicles, as the incidence of fire in the Model S is well below that of traditional gasoline cars. While this argument appears valid, the history of other highly publicized investigations/recalls/media scares, such as Audi in the 1980s and Toyota in 2010, shows that sales can take about a 10-20% hit, even if the allegations later prove to be unfounded. We cut our PT to $120 from $141, reflecting reduced Model S/X delivery estimates. Moreover, just as momentum led to the stock overshooting our prior PT on the way up, we can see overshooting on the way down to the ~$90 range.

The stock is down $6.27 at $119.82, yesterday's low print was $119.22. A solid double-bottom would be an undercut of yesterday's low either today or tomorrow morning to get that Abandon-hope-all-ye-who-enter-here vibe and then onwards to glory.
Or something.

That 2009 call worked out but markets are easier than stocks, no death car fire factor to deal with, for example. Yesterday's pre-market low was $115.60.
Here's more on the downgrade at Forbes.
Jimmy: Be careful, Beth, because the stock market can be a cruel mistress.

Beth: Well, so can I, but that's not how I want to make my money any more.
*By Elon Musk: "The Mission of Tesla"