Thursday, November 21, 2013

The Household Deleveraging Cycle is Drawing to A Close

If the headline conclusion is correct this has all kinds of implications. More to come
From BCA Research:
The U.S. recovery during the past seven years has closely followed the average experience of other industrialized countries that have been through a similar credit-driven housing boom and bust. If anything, the decline in U.S. output has been slightly worse and the recovery more drawn out than suggested by the previous cycles.
U.S. Household Deleveraging Cycle
It is tempting to blame the fiscal consolidation in the U.S. for this difference, but in fact, the scale and pace of fiscal drag has been quite similar in the U.S. compared to the other countries. Another possible reason is that the comparable (mainly Scandanavian) countries are more dependent on trade and were able to devalue their currencies, which helped speed the adjustment process and recovery. Most likely however, the main difference stems from the fact that the deleveraging episodes in these other countries took place when the global backdrop was much healthier than it is today. The U.S. housing bust exposed weaknesses and spawned adjustments in many other countries around the world....MORE