From Barron's Focus on Funds column:
Well, this would be good news for the global economy if it bears out.
The potential for an expanding global crude oil supply is “greater
than at any point in recent memory, leaving the outlook for oil prices
skewed to the downside over the next few years.”
That’s according to Morgan Stanley commodity strategists Adam Longson and Alan Lee, who this morning forecast Brent crude oil’s price to average $103 a barrel during 2014 before falling to $98 during 2015.
Over this period, non-OPEC crude growth should “far outpace demand,” they write:
Downside risk concentrated in 2014/2015.
Our field-level analysis shows global supply growth is front-end loaded
and should be most challenging for global oil balances in 2014 and 2015
given the resolution of supply outages (mostly in OPEC) and ongoing
growth in North America and Brazil. An improved USD outlook only
compounds the challenge. However, US shale is simply the latest
iteration in the long run oil cycle and will not solve the world’s
energy problems. As we look to the second half of the decade, heavy
decline rates at tight oil plays and a leaner project slate result in
slower supply growth and firmer oil markets....MORE
See also last year's "
Goldman Sachs on Oil Prices to 2016 with Breakeven Prices For the Top 360 Projects".
