Monday, November 25, 2013

"Iran and the oil markets"

Brent futures are trading down 1.6% at $109.31, WTI off 1.3% at $93.61.
From FT Alphaville:
Here to explain why refiners in Asia aren’t getting giddy about the Iran deal are some analysts accompanied by an angry Congress, angry Israel, angry Saudi, OPEC, existing sanctions, such as the ban on exports to the EU, and a large implicit counterfactual – without a deal, sanctions would have tightened further.
As the FT said:
In the short term, Iranian exports may receive a limited boost from current levels estimated by traders at up to 1.2m barrel per day, as the remaining large buyers of the country’s crude feel less pressure to reduce imports. However, a return to pre-sanctions levels of exports of around 2.5m b/d is not on the cards for now.
To Barc (with our emphasis):
Despite the landmark agreement, we believe that next phase of the talks will prove challenging. A key question is whether the current Iranian concessions represent a floor or a ceiling. If it is the latter, it will likely be very difficult to get the US Congress to go along with the deal. On Saturday evening, President Obama warned the US Congress against potentially derailing the deal by enacting additional sanctions legislation during the next six months. As we have noted before, many of the most restrictive sanctions – including the restrictions on dealing with the Iranian central bank and the requirement for foreign countries to reduce their Iranian oil imports every six months – originated in the US Congress, not the White House.

See also yesterday's "Société Générale: Initial Impact on Oil Prices From Iran Deal Should Be 'Muted'".