Wednesday, November 20, 2013

CPI Headline Inflation Drops to 1% Year-over-Year

I'm not seeing that QE is doing a damn thing other than lifting equity prices.
The fact that the Fed persists in the face of that reality pretty much tells you that raising asset valuations is the goal with all the other chatter being misdirection.
Cool, keep it up.

On the other hand declining oil prices aren't the worst thing in the world. We used to figure a 10% move in oil equated to a lagged 1% move, up or down, in CPI. In our more energy efficient world it's probably a 20:1 ratio but it still matters.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Consumer Prices Ease Amid Lower Fuel Costs
Core Reading Shows Slight Gain, but Inflation Remains Below Fed's Target
U.S. consumer prices rose last month at the slowest annual pace in four years, the latest sign of weak inflation that could influence Federal Reserve officials as they consider scaling back their bond-buying program.

The consumer-price index, which measures how much Americans pay for everything from furniture to medical care to housing, rose only 1% in October from the same month last year, the smallest 12-month increase since October 2009, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 1.7% from a year ago, similar to the modest gains seen in recent months. The Fed targets an annual inflation rate of 2%. 

Prices fell 0.1% last month from September, the first drop since April. Core prices increased 0.1%.
"Despite the Fed's massive easing efforts and the recent uptick in growth, inflation remains subdued," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. "With limited inflation pressure and even perhaps a whiff of deflation, the Fed isn't likely to feel any urgency to pull in the reins on policy."

Last month, the overall decrease reflected gasoline prices, which were down 2.9% for the month. A boom in domestic oil drilling, abundant supplies, declining seasonal demand and lower crude-oil prices are keeping costs down....MORE