From the Artemis blog:
A professor of civil engineering at Kansai University, who is also part of the Japanese government’s Central Disaster Management Council, estimates that a magnitude 7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo could cost as much as $3 trillion dollars (300 trillion yen) in economic losses.
The new estimate from professor Yoshiaki Kawata, a recognised expert in earthquake science and the potential damages resulting from earthquakes, is roughly triple an estimate given previously by the central government, according to the Japanese newspaper The Asahi Shimbun.
The Japanese government’s Central Disaster Management Council is currently in the process of reviewing its own estimates for the potential economic damages that a major earthquake could cause in the Tokyo area. With Kawata proposing a figure so much greater than the previous government sanctioned estimate, and with Kawata a member of that team, we can expect the governments estimate to rise significantly.
Kawata simulated a magnitude 7.3 quake in the northern area of Tokyo Bay, an event which is given a 70% chance of occurring within the next 30 years, according to the data. This simulation is seen as one of the worst possible earthquake occurrences for Tokyo, so it’s not a surprise to see an estimate so large.
Kawata’s estimate suggests such an event could cause 48,000 deaths and cause economic damage, largely to buildings and infrastructure, of between 200 trillion and 300 trillion yen. Include the breakdown of political and economic activity that such a major event would cause and Kawata believes the damage could exceed $3 trillion.
Kawata also estimated that a magnitude 8.5 Sagami Trough earthquake could top the Tokyo event, with estimated economic losses of 280 trillion to 420 trillion yen (over $4 trillion) and 124,000 deaths....MORE
