Friday, November 15, 2013

EIA Natural Gas Supply/Demand Weekly Update

Stuff to think about:
1) How big is the market GE's new natural gas locomotives?
2) How will the small but accelerating growth in compressed natural gas trucks impact the price of diesel?
3) How much of the new Pennsylvania and Ohio production will be taken up by the northeastern states' shift from fuel oil to natty?
From the EIA:
Gas pipeline expansions reduce Marcellus backup, New York gas prices
As reported in October, natural gas pipeline expansions were slated to add nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity to flow gas to markets in New York and New Jersey on November 1. These expansions happened on schedule, increasing access for consumers in the New York City metropolitan area to natural gas produced in the Appalachian Basin's Marcellus Shale play. This has resulted in lower gas prices for New York consumers, and has eased supply backup in the Marcellus Basin.

For the first 13 days of this month, prices have declined year-on-year at the Transco Zone 6 – New York (TZ6-NY) trading point by 40 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu) compared to the national benchmark Henry Hub spot price in Erath, Louisiana. So far this month, November’s flows are 14% above flows for the same days in 2012. Although November demand has been slightly higher in 2013 than 2012, increased supply capacity has contributed to lower prices, which have declined from $3.75/MMBtu for the first 13 days of November 2012 – a 33 cent/MMBtu premium to the Henry Hub spot price – to $3.47/MMBtu for the first 13 days of November 2013 – a 7 cent/MMBtu discount to Henry Hub.
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Residential/commercial sector demand increased. Total consumption increased by 15.6% from the previous week, largely because of a 31.5% increase in residential and commercial consumption, according to data from Bentek Energy. Space heating demand increased as temperatures fell across much of the country and significantly colder-than-normal temperatures moved into the Northeast on Tuesday. Consumption of natural gas for power generation and in the industrial sector were also up this week, by 6.1% and 4.7% respectively.

Natural gas supply increased as production and imports rose. Total supply increased by 1.6% from the previous week. Dry gas production increased by 0.7%, with production reaching an all time high of 67.5 Bcf on November 9, according to Bentek data. Net imports of natural gas from Canada increased by 14.1% as net imports into the Northeast were almost double the previous week. Imports of LNG increased over the report week, notably at the Everett terminal in Massachusetts, but continue to be a small contributor to total U.S. natural gas supply....MORE
Deviation between average and normal (°F)
7-Day Mean ending Nov 07, 2013
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Nov 07, 2013