Mosley on the other hand...*
From MetaFilter:
Brad DeLong, recently installed at Equitablog, lays out a future (wonkish) where the returns to capital keep increasing relative to labor: "What do we people do to add value? Eight things...
"But technology marches on... So what's left for humans?
- We apply large amounts of energy to move things around and transform them.
- We use fine manipulators to do precision work as we move things around and transform them.
- We amuse, please, and encourage each other.
- We figure out how the large amounts of energy are to be applied, and trigger the application.
- We figure out how the precision work is to be done, and trigger the manipulation.
- We coordinate our collective efforts so that we are mostly pulling in more-or-less the same direction.
- We communicate to others both what is going on and better ways of doing useful things.
- We think of new (and hopefully better) ways of doing useful things, or new useful things to do...
"So right now we live in a world in which some people still do (1)-(5), but only (3b) is in any sense a potential growth sector for employment, and in which (6)-(8) (plus 3b) are what we do. And now (6a) is about to vanish into the automated info sphere as well, possibly accompanied by (7a).
- Those parts of (3) that cannot or that we prefer not to have automated: live coaches, live performers, live companions--call this (3b)
- (6) in the form of all of the paper-shuffling to keep track of what we are all doing, what we are each allowed to do, and what we should do next--an economy of clerks, call this (6a).
- (6) in the form of actual planning--all this (6b).
- (7)--education, journalism, and marketing, but this too is breaking apart into a (7a) that can be automated by information and communications technologies and a (7b) that still requires high-human cognition.
- (8)--research and development.
"That will leave us with personal services--(3b)--actual planning and control--(6b)--elite education/journalism/marketing--(7b)--and (8), research and development, as things that humans can do in the future to add value. Our society will then be enormously rich: our collective and average productivity will be awesome. But the society will only be a good society if we can figure out how to employ each other in high-value (3b) activities--only if we find ways to organize life so that most of us can actually add a lot of value by amusing, pleasing, and encouraging others will we have a society of mutual respect, and of only tolerable inequality."*Formula One boss Max Mosley 'exposed as sadomasochist in Nazi orgy with five prostitutes'
Shorter DeLong: "We are moving forward into a world in which we are going to have to figure out a better way to share out of the common store."
It may be: "Society could set a basic income that rises with economy-wide productivity, and as workers' potential earnings fall below that reservation level they cease working. An alternative (or maybe complementary) policy might be to encourage broader ownership of capital, either as part of standard labour compensation or in lieu of some other income subsidy."...MORE