Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Deere Forecasts Farm Income Down $12.3 Billion (3.1%) in 2013 DE

The stock is down $1.62 at $82.29 after a solid earnings beat but a less than upbeat farm country forecast.
Corn has picked up half of yesterday's loss, up 8 cents at $4.5525. Barring an early frost there is probably a shot at the high $3.90's for the new crop (Dec.) contract.

From Reuters:
Deere posts strong profit, but farmbelt spending a concern
Deere & Co (DE.N) reported a much higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday on strong sales of its tractors and harvesters in the Americas, but some analysts said the results represented the high-water mark for the company in the current farm cycle.

Deere also said sales for the current quarter would be 5 percent lower than a year earlier. Its shares fell more than 1 percent.

Earlier this year, Deere lowered its outlook for fiscal 2013 revenue, saying a cooler-than-normal spring in North America had depressed sales. Some investors worried the softness was a sign of a new normal as corn prices have retreated from the all-time highs they hit last summer.

A number of analysts, including UBS, Barclays and William Blair & Co, have cut their outlooks and share-price targets for Deere in recent days, citing concerns that farmers will slash their capital spending because of plunging grain prices.

William Blair analyst William De Maria said the results for the third quarter ended July 31, while impressive, suggested "the peak may have just occurred."

Indeed, De Maria said that while the company raised its forecast for full-year earnings per share, the outlook implied a lower fourth quarter than many analysts were modeling going into Wednesday's announcement....MORE

And from Bloomberg:
Deere Forecasts U.S. Farm Revenue Will Decline on Crops
Deere & Co. forecast a decline in U.S. farm revenue, a key indicator of agricultural-equipment sales, through 2014 as crop prices weaken.

U.S. farm cash receipts will drop to $389.8 billion in 2013 and $379.7 billion next year from a record $402.1 billion last year, the world’s largest farm-equipment maker said in a slide presentation accompanying its fiscal third-quarter earnings report today. Deere’s annual sales have gained 50 percent since fiscal 2007 as farmers’ revenue was bolstered by a rally in agricultural commodities....MORE