Following up on "Natural Gas: Storage Tealeaves for 8/22/13" this report raises the question of whether there has been a drop-off in production which would be structural and extremely bullish or if the injection shortfall was caused by a spike in consumption which would set us up for another short. From August 15's "Natural Gas: Looking for Another Leg Lower After the Heatwave":
...but the futures could trade up to $3.60 (from last week's 3.129 spike bottom) and still be in a downtrend:
More to come.
And from the Energy Information Administration:
Here's the reaction to the far lower (-15 Bcf) injection:
for week ending August 16, 2013. | Released: August 22, 2013 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: August 29, 2013
Working gas in underground storage, lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN Historical Comparisons Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)Year ago
(08/16/12)5-Year average
(2008-2012)Region 08/16/13 08/09/13 change (Bcf) % change (Bcf) % change East 1,506 1,459 47 1,705 -11.7 1,609 -6.4 West 500 494 6 489 2.2 441 13.4 Producing 1,057 1,053 4 1,107 -4.5 969 9.1 Salt 258 261 -3 218 18.3 154 67.5 Nonsalt 799 792 7 889 -10.1 815 -2.0 Total 3,063 3,006 57 3,301 -7.2 3,019 1.5 Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,063 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 57 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 238 Bcf less than last year at this time and 44 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,019 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 103 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 47 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 88 Bcf above the 5-year average of 969 Bcf after a net injection of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 59 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 6 Bcf. At 3,063 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range....MORE
