From an April '08 post, "Buy Tin":
That was the cryptic message from a reformed metals trader this afternoon. No rationale, no investment thesis, just "buy tin".The episode aired in January 1980 so at $.8889, zinc didn't do so hot (but actually better than gold, which hit $850 that same month). The reformed metals trader worked for one of the discrete, some might say secretive Swiss-based physical commodities traders.
I couldn't help thinking of the Barney Miller episode "Child Stealers".
Time traveler "Adam Boyer" comes back from 2057 and is hounded by Harris for stock tips:
[Harris, acting on a tip from a "twinkie" claiming to be a Sociology Professor from Columbia University who's traveled back in time from the year 2057 (played by the great character actor Richard Libertini), calls his broker to transfer his assets from gold bullion to the financial standard of the future--Zinc!!]:
"...no, no blue chips, either...I was thinking about Zinc! (pause) Yeah, Zinc! What's it goin for these days? (writing the figure on a notepad)...Thirty seven and a half cents---a POUND?? (The "Professor" gives Harris an encouraging nod)...Yeah, well, I might be willin' to spring for a coupla TONS!"...
He had up to $50 mil. discretion to buy Russian copper cathodes or aluminum or whatever, figure out the logistics, rail, shipping, bribe the right port authorities etc. Pretty much end-to-end, turnkey, whatever you wanted to call it.
So when he called, I listened. And started laughing. I couldn't get that damned Barney Miller scene out of my head.....
Here's Kitco's zinc chart:
From Bloomberg:
Red Kite’s Jansen Favors Tin as ‘Super-Cycle’ Continues
Tin is the top pick among base metals for 2013, while platinum and palladium will outperform gold and silver in the next few years, said Michael Jansen, head of research at RK Capital Management LLP.We looked at red Kite in a series of posts in late 2011 regarding Barclays' mega losses in copper trading:
“Mine supply is expanding solidly in all LME base metals except for tin,” said Jansen, whose company, known as Red Kite, oversees $3 billion in assets. Precious metals will outshine industrial metals, he said.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials more than doubled in the past decade, as gold had the longest string of annual advances since at least 1920. Red Kite joins Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in forecasting a commodity “super cycle” will continue, while Citigroup Inc. analysts said in November it ended because China is growing more slowly and supply has caught up.
“I don’t think it’s over,” Jansen said in an interview in Shanghai on Jan. 13. “It’s just not as exciting as it was.”
The hedge fund, co-founded by Michael Farmer and David Lilley in 2005, runs Red Kite Compass Fund, Red Kite Metals Fund, Red Kite Prospect Fund and two mining-finance funds. It invests in both precious and base metals, Jansen said.
Tin, the best performer last year among six industrial metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, gaining 22 percent, climbed to an 11-month high of $25,100 a metric ton yesterday. Copper gained 4.4 percent last year and traded at $7,982 a ton at 4:23 p.m. in Shanghai. The metal is in a moderate uptrend, although it will fall back “quite quickly” this year, he said.
“Supply growth is expected to be quite strong this year, and that will meet most of the demand, if not all of the demand improvement,” he said, referring to copper.
China Fundamentals
The company is bearish about aluminum and lead because China is largely self-sufficient, and nickel because the country is importing less, Jansen said. China, the largest user of industrial metals, accounting for more than 40 percent global consumption, is also the biggest producer refined metals....MORE
UPDATED--Barclays Hit With "Immense" Copper Trading Loss; 50 Sigma Move In Cancelled Aluminum Warrants (50-Sigma events don't happen)
Barclays Capital to Wall Street Journal on Copper Losses: "Nonsense"
Barclays, No Sumitomo here, Copper Traders Whupped by Red Kite (BARC.L)
Red Kite: The Folks Who Bested Barclays' Copper Traders
Red Kite also shows up in a series of posts in 2012:
"SEC OKs Plan To Devastate Copper Market, Economy" (JPM)
The World Cries Out for Industrial Metals ETF's, JPMorgan et al Hears Those Cries
Red Kite Wins Time In Fight Against JP Morgan Copper ETF
