I don't have the guts to make five year projections as:
a) right now naming names that far in advance seems like a cross between wishful thinking and necromancy.
b) I am ever alert for the opportunity to lose 25-50% of AUM and the most likely way for that to happen is a shootin' war: India-Pakistan; China-Japan; Israel-Iran or some combination of the above. Predicting we'll be war free for five years seems like a longshot.
2999.75 was the closing high for the DJIA on July 16, 1990.
On July 17 we had the exact same closing print and I pointed out to an old-timer “Hey we almost closed at 3000″.
His reply: “Yeah, but we didn’t, I’m going short”.
From the New York Times:
Dow Ends at 2,999.75 With a Rise of 19.55
That of course was the pre-Gulf war (I) high, sixteen days later Saddam invaded Kuwait.By ROBERT J. COLE
Published: July 17, 1990
The Dow Jones industrial average flirted yesterday with a close above 3,000, but it ended the day just shy of that benchmark. Stock market analysts contended nevertheless that the performance indicated that stock prices still seemed to be climbing, at least for a while longer.
Although it failed to close above the 3,000 barrier, the blue-chip index climbed to its third new high in three trading sessions, advancing 19.55 points, to 2,999.75, just 25-hundredths of a point short.
Analysts expressed strong confidence that the Dow, which traded above 3,000 at several points during the day, would soon close that high. How soon, they said, was difficult to say....MORE
Less than three months later the market had dropped 21% and I found myself saying "Hmmm".
So I leave it to others to be gutsy on specific names.
From Raymond James:
“For all the sad words of tongue and pen, the saddest are these: It might have been.”HT: Market Folly
... John Whittier; an influential American Quaker poetCertainly, American poet John Greenleaf Whittier’s apothegm has stood the test of time, serving as a universal lament for what “might have been.” I was reminded of this maxim last week as Wall Street heard increasing laments from investors on the Street of Dreams. To wit, “What might have been if I had bought the indexes four weeks ago?” Or how about, “If I could have just covered my shorts . . . sold my bonds . . . bought Dell (DELL/$13.16/Strong Buy), which is up 30% YTD,” etc. And, those laments were music to my ears, for those are precisely the kind of “whines” that you hear at this stage of a buying stampede as the “outs” lament about not being “in.” Indeed at session 18 (today), of the typical 17- to 25-session stampede, this is typically where the “outs” worry that this rally is the real thing – that THE bottom has been made and a new bull move has begun. Reinforcing those feelings are numerous pundits pontificating everything from, “our government is dysfunctional and the debt ceiling will prove it,” to the often recited “this is just a rally in an ongoing bear market.” Of course, these are the same pundits that have already falsely called for the bear market to resume for nearly four years, as well as telling us that Armageddon was coming with the “fiscal cliff.” Moreover, when “the cliff” was pinned to the great wall of media hype the headlines were immediately refreshed for the next Armageddon, aka the debt ceiling. Of course with that “orchestrated drama” now passing into the rearview mirror, at least in the short-term, investors are going to have to start focusing on the fundamentals, and here the story is improving noticeably. Nevertheless, these false prophecies should cause the “outs” to attempt get back “in,” thus extending the “buying stampede.”
Recall that “buying stampedes” tend to last 17- to 25-sessions with only one- to three-session pauses and/or pullbacks, before they exhaust themselves. It just seems to be the rhythm of the thing in that it takes that long to get everybody bullish enough to throw-in their “bear towels” and commit capital right in time to make a short-term trading top. While it is true a few stampedes have lasted 25 to 30 sessions, it is extremely rare to have one extend for more than 30 sessions. Today is session 18. Granted, for the past few weeks I too have been overly cautious, influenced by tried and true indicators that have served me well over the years. To be sure, the S&P 500 (SPX/1502.96) remains overbought with 92.6% of its stocks above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs), as well the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is still overbought in the short-term. However, the stock markets can remain overbought for longer than most think in a bull move. Further, the Volatility Index (VIX/12.89) is not confirming the renewed stock strength and some of the hitherto leading stocks are not acting well....MORE
