Have We Reached Peak Car?

Don't say that to something like four billion people.
From Quartz:

Does India really look like it needs more cars? AP Photo

 

Car-makers from around the world met in Detroit this week for the North American Auto Show, unveiling new models (the Corvette Stingray!) and concepts. It’s a time of hope for automakers, with expectations of a 6.8% increase in car salesdespite economic uncertainty in Europe and slow-downs in emerging markets. But what if the post-crisis renaissance in car-making is relatively short-lived? It may be, if we’re approaching “peak car,” the point where the demand for cars starts declining.

Peak car might already be here in some countries. Across the developed world, growth in total vehicle miles travelled has been slowing steadily since the early 2000s, according to the OECD. In the United States, the world’s second-largest auto market after China, that measure peaked in 2007 and has declined since, despite an increasing population:

There are many explanations for this: First, the increasing cost of fossil fuels, insurance, and parking at a time of stagnant wage growth in many advanced countries. Then, there are policy changes reflecting concerns about climate change and pollution, along with “smart growth” attempts to reduce urban sprawl: Subsidies for public transit, attempts to tax carbon usage, and an emphasis on multiple modes of transport. Around the world, people are coming to terms with the cost of a reliance on cars: Just look at Beijing.

Other rationales are social and cultural. The communications technology revolution has made some travel for work and leisure obsolete, and a trend toward urbanization has replaced the flight to the suburbs in some nations. Meanwhile, the idea of the car as a status symbol or right of passage is less evident, reducing their cachet as vessels for conspicuous consumption. These trends are especially evident among young people, which isn’t promising for carmakers of the future.

There’s even something called Marchetti’s Constant at play, the idea that people will only tolerate daily commutes of up to an hour....MORE