Correlation ≠ Blah, blah: Oil and Gas Rig Count vs. Future Economic Growth (and decline curves, don't forget decline curves)

From Aleklett's Energy Mix:

I en kort artikel utan kommentarer konstaterar Oil&Gas Journal att antalet borrplattformar som borrar efter olja och gas har minskat med 12 enheter till 1749 enheter. Jämfört med antalet riggar för ett år sedan, 2008 riggar, är det en minskning med 13%. Lite mer detaljstudie ger att 51 riggar borrar till havs, 429 letar efter gas och 1316 efter olja medan resten inte kan specificeras. Ni som är intresserade av detaljerad statistik kan gå till hemsidan för Baker Hughes Inc.
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

Där kan man också läsa att det fanns 601 riggar i Kanada och för övriga världen 1253 borriggar. Det totala antalet i världen är således 3603 och det betyder att 65 procent av alla världens riggar nu finns i Nordamerika....VIDARE

Just funnin' ya.

The blogger, Kjell Aleklett, is Professor of Physics at Uppsala University in Sweden where he leads the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (UGES). He blogs in both Swedish and English.
His post took a quick look at the BHI rig count vs. the U.S. economy. However, what really interested me was a one paragraph snippet:

...During recent months fracking has been promoted as the cure for Peak Oil. It is said that production in the USA is to more than triple. However, the trend that we are now seeing gives no indication that gas production will increase in the near future. To triple production would require the number of drilling rigs to increase to 4000. At the moment, an enormous number of wells must be drilled just to maintain the current production level. David Hughes showed in his presentation that it requires 7641 wells to maintain current production of oil and gas. A doubling of production would require 15,000 new wells per year to hold production constant at that new level....

As the reality of the decline curves becomes apparent I see no way for gas to trade in the current range. Combined with powerplant coal-to-gas switching and increased use as chemical feedstock and transportation fuel the upmove could be compressed and dramatic. The question as always is the timing.