Although it's up 25% from the post-IPO low Glencore's stock isn't priced high enough that a smart management would want to use it as currency. I'm not sure there will be any higher offer so, at today's Glencore quote it looks like an 1131p price for XTA or 7.4% higher than the current 1053.
That's a big spread for a deal that is being talked about as a lock. We'll know the answer by Sept. 24.
Hedge funds are betting that commodities trader Glencore will succeed in its battle for miner Xstrata, in a long-running deal that has been profitable for arbitrageurs and is still attracting funds looking to make money.
Arbs, hungry for action after a lean period for M&A, have been buzzing around the deal for months, attracted by its size, liquidity and complexity, and many profited from last week's move by Glencore (GLEN.L) to sweeten its now 23 billion pound all-share bid.
Xstrata (XTA.L) was expected to recommend the offer as early as next week, although Qatar Holding - its second-biggest investor after Glencore - has yet to make its decision public.
However, after a breakthrough in talks last week, brokered by former British prime minister Tony Blair, many funds believe it is only a matter of time before the deal gets the Qataris' stamp of approval....MORE