Monday, September 17, 2012

What if the Fed is Still Buying Paper When the Next Recession Hits?

That's gonna leave a mark.
From Tim Duy's Fed Watch:

Getting Off the Zero Bound
...Looking at the Fed's extended guidance, they do not see the need to raise short term interest rates until mid-2015.  June 2015 would mark 90 months since the peak of the last business cycle in December 2007.  The average peak-to-peak cycle of the last three recessions 96 months, the average since 1945 is 66 months.  Now, I don't think you can say that the probability of recession in the next month is a factor of the time since the last recession.  But you can say that given past business cycle timing, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that the next recession will hit before we lift off the zero bound.  Moreover, it would be relatively uncommon for the peak-to-peak cycle to last more than 90 months.  Only 4 of the last 11 cycles have exceeded this length of time.... MORE