Friday, September 28, 2012

UBS: New Coal Power Plants Will Save the European Emissions Tradng Scheme.

Over the years we've pointed out, with an eye to making a buck or two, some of the perversities, absurdities and anomalies of carbon trading. One of my favorites is the fact that as it gets colder the price of carbon rises.
Think about it.

Here's a variation from Luboš Motl's The Reference Frame blog.
Mr. Motl is a theoretical physicist who in the late '90's proposed a type of superstring theory called Matrix String Theory. This got him enough academic cred that Harvard hired him, first as a Harvard Fellow and later as an Assistant Professor.

Then something happened and he left Harvard and headed back to the birthplace of Pilsner lager.
The reason for his departure in 2007 was very mysterious although I've narrowed it down to two possibilities:

1) During her 2007 installation as Harvard's 28th President, Drew Faust spoke on the topic "Unleashing our most ambitious imaginings" and, fueled by his hometown elixir, Prof. Motl was inspired by her subject and made a pass at the incoming Prez.
2) He was recruited by the CIA to sabotage the Iranian nuclear program, which personal act-of-war violated some obscure provision of Harvard's Faculty Code of Conduct. ("The Faculty of Arts and Sciences seeks to maintain a learning and work environment free of private acts of war..."}

Anywho, here's The Reference Frame:
An hour ago, I saw a fascinating article on Patria.CZ, a Czech server for investors, which revealed a highly paradoxical, nearly comical plan.

Analysts at UBS are predicting that by 2015, energy giants such as E.ON and RWE will build lots of new coal power plants – in fact, their capacity will be 6 times greater than the capacity of previously preferred gas-based alternatives. That may send the price of carbon permits up by 73% by 2013. Note that the U.N.-based carbon indulgences' price, CER, dropped by 80 percent in the most recent year....MORE
And here's Bloomberg last week:

Coal Era Beckons for Europe as Carbon Giveaway Finishes

Coal Era Beckons for EU as Carbon Giveaway Ends
Power producers from EON AG to RWE AG will open six times more coal-burning plants than gas-fed units by 2015, UBS AG said in a Sept. 5 research note. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg
European utilities are poised to add more coal-fired power capacity than natural gas in the next four years, boosting emissions just as the era of free carbon permits ends. 

Power producers from EON AG to RWE AG (RWE) will open six times more coal-burning plants than gas-fed units by 2015, UBS AG said in a Sept. 5 research note. Profits at coal-fired power stations may more than double by then, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report published on Sept. 13. 
The new stations, replacing atomic and aging fossil fuel- based plants, will boost demand for emission permits because coal-fired generators need twice as many credits as gas users under climate protection rules. The price of UN credits may rebound 73 percent by the end of next year from an all-time low on Sept. 18, according to the Euro Carbon Macro Fund in Luxembourg, which manages about $32 million....MORE

For more on the scams frauds and plain silliness of the ETS use the 'Search Blog' box with the keywords:
China HFC23 
Gazprom leaky pipes
ArcelorMittal windfall
or simply, Europe carbon.