Monday, September 24, 2012

Silliness: U.S. Farmland At $20,000/Acre as Planting Intentions Hit Record

These numbers can't both be sustainable.
Two from Agrimoney, first up:
US farmland hits $20,000 an acre as market revives
The US farm economy is showing signs of reviving from a drought-induced decline, with farmland prices hitting $20,000 an acre in some areas, and a recovery in the agricultural equipment market too.
A farmland price index compiled by Creighton University rebounded to a four-month high of 61.6, from 52.8 in August, indicating price growth recovering in a rally that has now lasted for nearly three years.

Any figure above 50.0 indicates rising values.

Recovery was notably strong in Minnesota, where the price index rebounded to 71.1, and where a 27-acre parcel of land sold on Wednesday for $14,000 an acre, a record for its county, and only $1,000 an acre short of the state high reached in 2003, on University of Minnesota figures.

'More air into the price bubble'

However, some bankers questioned for the survey, covering US agricultural states from North Dakota to Kansas, "are reporting farmland prices as high as $20,000 per acre", said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who has voiced concerns over the extent of the rally....MORE
Corn sowings to hit 77-year top, soybeans a record
US farmers raised corn and soybean sowings even further than officials have revealed, Informa Economics said – and forecast that seedings for next year's harvest will increase even further.
The influential analysis group pegged corn sowings for the ongoing harvest at 97.172m acres, up more than 750m acres on the current US Department of Agriculture estimate, and the highest since 1937.
Soybean plantings were 77.143m acres, Informa said, up nearly 1.1m acres from the USDA figure.

The revisions are based on analysis of data from growers' returns to the Farm Service Agency, which handles farm support payments, and which said on Monday suggested corn and soybean area was higher than had been thought.

Highest in 77 years 

And Informa forecast a further increase in sowings next spring.

At 97.537m acres, corn sowings would be the highest since 1936, and above a figure of 96m acres forecast last month by fertilizer group CF Industries which was questioned as generous by many observers.

Soybean area, at 79.872m acres, would be a record....MORE
Corn is trading at $7.46¾, down from the all-time closing high of  $8.43¾ reached on August 10 and $8.49 intraday.